You are in luck because this blog will be short and I will not bore you with a multi-page blog. India is an overpopulated country. We have no doubts about that. But let’s look at it from a different angle. May be, it is not as populated as we think.
Japan is densely populated. Its population density is 338 per Sq Km. India’s density is 364 per Sq Km. But when you look more closely, about 75% of Japan’s land is either mountainous or dense forests with uneven slope thus making this area uninhabitable. This means that the actual population density in habitable area is 4 to 5 times higher than the official one. In contrast, barring the Himalayan region and Rajasthan’s desert, all of India is quite habitable.
China has a population that is little more than India’s. But China’s size is three times that of India. The official population density is 140 per Sq Km. But 70% of China’s land area is covered with mountains and hills thus making these places uninhabitable. So the effective density is perhaps little more than India’s.
India has a population of nearly 1.2 Billion. I have talked about need for urbanization before. But we do not want the extremely high population density of major Indian cities that makes living uncomfortable. The three major cities, New Delhi, Calcutta and Bombay all have a population density of roughly 25000/Sq Km. If we design urban areas that have a density of a fifths of these cities, i.e. 5000/Sq Km, people will have comfortable living.
How much space will be needed if we theoretically create one urban megalopolis which will house all 1.2 Billion Indians?
It is 1200 Million/ 5000 = 240000 Sq Km
How much space is that? Well, the state of Madhya Pradesh has an area of 308252 Sq Km. In other words, theoretically all 1.2 Billion Indians can be accommodated in Madhya Pradesh alone and yet the population density of the state will be only 1/5 of the three major cities. You can use the rest of India for farming, Industry and everything else.
Water
In urban areas, an Indian consumes only 135 liters of water per day compared to 700 to 750 Liters used in the developed nations. We need to increase water supply so that the average Indian can use sufficient water. I have proposed before to create cities and towns with average population of 600000. We can provide sufficient water to the urban dwellers, if for the city 600000 strong we excavate an artificial lake of 25 Sq Km (5 Km X 5Km square or 12 Km X 2 Km rectangular) few Kilometers away from the city. Besides water, the lake can also supply sweet water fish and recreational activities like boating. The lake will get replenished by rain water.
Showing posts with label urbanization. Show all posts
Showing posts with label urbanization. Show all posts
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Monday, September 7, 2009
Process of urbanization
I have proposed that out of 300 million people, mostly with little education, who work in farming and related occupations about 280 million must be displaced to urban land. These 280 million will be surplus labor as corporate farming takes over. On the other hand, we have seen that it is impossible to provide city-like infrastructure in 600000 villages. Unless city-like infrastructure is provided, which means access to good schools, colleges, university, good hospital, shopping mall, Movie Theater, cultural centers, paved roads, underground sewage, supermarkets etc, you or I will not move to such a place unless forced. If you and I cannot stay there willingly, why should we expect others to stay there?
Therefore as I have proposed earlier, we need to build towns and cities across India that will accommodate 80% of the population. My estimate is that with 4 to 6 cities in every district, we need around 2000 cities with an average population of 400000 to 600000. Keep in mind that during this process of urbanization which may take a decade and half, the population will be around 1.3 billion. If the process works properly, then perhaps after 15 years, India will have only 50000 villages.
Resources can be much more optimally utilized in cities where people live in close proximity. As I have said in an earlier blog, providing water connection, electricity connection, cable TV, internet etc is much more cost effective in cities compared to villages because of the concentration of population.
With a little planning we can make the two processes complementary. The two processes are urbanization and movement of surplus farm workers to urban area. Urbanization will mean expanding the existing towns in each district massively. A town which currently has a population of 60000 will be expanded to accommodate 500000 people. In order to do that over a decade, we need the following tasks which will be shared by public and private effort:
1. Acquire land
• Bring the villages on the fringe of the town inside the municipality
• Make the farmland suitable for urban construction
2. Plan township infrastructure
• Involve private builders, chain store owners, investors in the planning process
• May make electricity, water supply private
• Plan underground facilities for sewage, water pipeline, electric cable, fiber optic cable for TV, phone and internet
3. Water supply
• Create massive artificial lake near the city
• The lake will hold rain water and will meet the water requirement of the city
• The lakes should be guarded to prevent pollution
• Build pipeline from the lake to processing plant in the city
• There can be two or more competing private providers
4. Electricity
• Select private or public electricity supplier
• Determine source of power and who supplies
• Enable competition as far as possible
• Only licensed builders or electricians should wire a house
5. Sewage
• Build underground sewage system under every new road being constructed
• All sewage should go to a processing plant
• Recycling will be attempted as much as possible
• About 5 Km away from the township , there will be a garbage dump where solid waste should be disposed after reprocessing
6. Mobile phone network
• The mobile service providers will take care of erecting tower etc
7. Cable TV, Satellite TV and internet
• These pipelines, most probably using underground fiber optic cable should be laid when a new road is being built
• Eventually the city should provide free Wi-Fi financed by a city tax
8. Education
• The city will need several schools, colleges and universities
• Both public and private investment should be sought
• Medical and engineering colleges should be built
• Free public school with mid-day meal must be provide to all who want
• States should be able to impose income tax to provide free schooling for all
9. Health care
• Both private and public hospitals should be planned and built
• Routine healthcare should be free
• For catastrophic or long term illnesses, people should be encouraged to buy health insurance
10. Shops, bazaars
• Major grocery store , department store and mall builders should be invited
• As people populate neighborhoods, stores will come up to fulfill demand
• Shopping areas must be planned during initial city planning
• Movie theaters, auditoriums, libraries and cultural centers will be built
• Each shopping area must have ample parking space
11. Housing
• Preferably, housing should be provided by medium and big builders
• They will build apartment complexes having 500 to 1000 flats
• This will provide economy of scale
• Depending on the importance of the city or land value, the flats may be in 4-storied houses or in 10 to 50-storied skyscrapers
• In most small towns, 4-storied houses with 16 flats will be ideal
• Builders will determine flat size and amenities. There can be many types of flats and complexes based on flat owner’s income
• No cross-subsidy should be provided
• Banks and other lending institutions should provide 20 to 30 year mortgage
• Each housing complex must provide ample parking space
12. Dwelling for low-skilled employed workers
• The low-skilled workers that migrate from villages to work as construction laborer, maid, security guard, driver, worker in stores, janitor, cleaner etc. will need housing also. But they cannot afford middle class amenities
• For low income workers, no-frills flats will be constructed. These also will have 24 X 7 water and electric supply like everyone else. But the flats will be between 300 and 500 sq ft each with cement floor, cheap windows and doors which can be mass produced in factories, basic bathroom and kitchen and will have 2 or 3 rooms.
• The workers can either buy a flat using long term loan or rent
• The rent can be subsidized by government if necessary
13. Dwelling for newcomers from villages
• For those who migrate from villages with no job, they will be housed in dormitories. Each family will have a room. Single people will share a room. There will be one bathroom with multiple shower stalls and toilets in each floor. Each floor may have 10 to 20 rooms.
• There will be several shared kitchens with gas stoves in each floor. The gas will be provided by government. The building super will allocate time and kitchen for each family during which the family will have to complete cooking. They will use their own utensils, spices and other implements.
• These dormitory dwellings are free for newcomers for up to one year. Within one year, they will have to learn skills, get a job and move to dwelling described in item 12.
• A person, who gets a job, will be allowed to stay in dormitory for 6 months at most. After that, he/she will have to migrate to dwelling for employed workers.
• If a person loses job and cannot pay rent, he can move back to the dorms with his family.
• A social worker, who will act as a mentor, will work with several families. She will train the family in basic urban skills such as how to open a bank account and use it, how to operate the gas stove etc.
• In many cases, potential employers such as building contractors or owners of maid services or janitorial services can go to villages and collect employees.
14. Office complexes
• Multistoried office buildings can be built to house many offices
• Big corporations will be allotted land to build their office
• There will be ample parking space in every office building
• Factories that create noise or air pollution will have to located few miles outside city limits, providing room for future expansion of the city
• Company or chartered buses can transport workers to and from workplace
15. Transportation
• Public or private buses can be provided for public commuting
• Auto rickshaws and Taxi will be allowed
• Cycle rickshaw can be permitted within a neighborhood
• Many people will have their own mode of transportation such as car or motorbike
It can be clearly seen that from digging lake to building underground sewage and water pipes, laying underground cables for electricity and telecommunication, building houses, schools, hospitals, stores, malls, movie theaters and markets there will be a need for many skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled laborers. The people from nearby villages can be enticed into these jobs because they would pay higher wages and would provide year round work. The government as well as private companies can train them as required. While white collar employees like architects, engineers, accountants as well as highly skilled workers like masons, electricians, plumbers, machine operators have to be recruited from all over India, there are many low skilled and unskilled jobs where local villagers who would otherwise work in farms, can be employed with little training. Some of these jobs are mason’s help, brick carrier, road sweeper, janitor, gardener, garbage collector, security guard, maid and cook.
Mentors
The role of mentors will be vital. Mentors can be hired by the government as individual employee or as a member of a group provided by an NGO or social work organization. They should be uniformly trained across the country in how to provide training and teach basic skills to people migrating from villages and those in search of jobs.
Each mentor will be able to handle, probably 100 families. She will most likely be a college graduate and a local person with knowledge of the town/city. Some newcomers from villages would not know how to live a city life. She will be their support person. She will teach them
• How to use bathroom cleanly
• What kind of opportunities are open to the adults based on their skills
• Where they can learn a skill or two so that they will get job
• Where are job openings
• How to spend within means
• How to open a bank account and use it
• How to receive money from the government during initial unemployment
• How to operate the gas stove safely
• Where to send children for school
• How to get additional help for children’s studies
• How to use public transportation
The central theme of this plan is to urbanize India without coercion. The premise is that most villagers live in abysmal condition in villages because they are not aware of better opportunity elsewhere. If they are provided opportunity, most of them will leave their ancestral land to city. The migration will happen anyway. This has happened in western nations in 19th and 20th century and is happening in China now. But all such migrations have been unplanned, chaotic and cost dearly to the people. With planned migration, the suffering can be reduced greatly.
Therefore as I have proposed earlier, we need to build towns and cities across India that will accommodate 80% of the population. My estimate is that with 4 to 6 cities in every district, we need around 2000 cities with an average population of 400000 to 600000. Keep in mind that during this process of urbanization which may take a decade and half, the population will be around 1.3 billion. If the process works properly, then perhaps after 15 years, India will have only 50000 villages.
Resources can be much more optimally utilized in cities where people live in close proximity. As I have said in an earlier blog, providing water connection, electricity connection, cable TV, internet etc is much more cost effective in cities compared to villages because of the concentration of population.
With a little planning we can make the two processes complementary. The two processes are urbanization and movement of surplus farm workers to urban area. Urbanization will mean expanding the existing towns in each district massively. A town which currently has a population of 60000 will be expanded to accommodate 500000 people. In order to do that over a decade, we need the following tasks which will be shared by public and private effort:
1. Acquire land
• Bring the villages on the fringe of the town inside the municipality
• Make the farmland suitable for urban construction
2. Plan township infrastructure
• Involve private builders, chain store owners, investors in the planning process
• May make electricity, water supply private
• Plan underground facilities for sewage, water pipeline, electric cable, fiber optic cable for TV, phone and internet
3. Water supply
• Create massive artificial lake near the city
• The lake will hold rain water and will meet the water requirement of the city
• The lakes should be guarded to prevent pollution
• Build pipeline from the lake to processing plant in the city
• There can be two or more competing private providers
4. Electricity
• Select private or public electricity supplier
• Determine source of power and who supplies
• Enable competition as far as possible
• Only licensed builders or electricians should wire a house
5. Sewage
• Build underground sewage system under every new road being constructed
• All sewage should go to a processing plant
• Recycling will be attempted as much as possible
• About 5 Km away from the township , there will be a garbage dump where solid waste should be disposed after reprocessing
6. Mobile phone network
• The mobile service providers will take care of erecting tower etc
7. Cable TV, Satellite TV and internet
• These pipelines, most probably using underground fiber optic cable should be laid when a new road is being built
• Eventually the city should provide free Wi-Fi financed by a city tax
8. Education
• The city will need several schools, colleges and universities
• Both public and private investment should be sought
• Medical and engineering colleges should be built
• Free public school with mid-day meal must be provide to all who want
• States should be able to impose income tax to provide free schooling for all
9. Health care
• Both private and public hospitals should be planned and built
• Routine healthcare should be free
• For catastrophic or long term illnesses, people should be encouraged to buy health insurance
10. Shops, bazaars
• Major grocery store , department store and mall builders should be invited
• As people populate neighborhoods, stores will come up to fulfill demand
• Shopping areas must be planned during initial city planning
• Movie theaters, auditoriums, libraries and cultural centers will be built
• Each shopping area must have ample parking space
11. Housing
• Preferably, housing should be provided by medium and big builders
• They will build apartment complexes having 500 to 1000 flats
• This will provide economy of scale
• Depending on the importance of the city or land value, the flats may be in 4-storied houses or in 10 to 50-storied skyscrapers
• In most small towns, 4-storied houses with 16 flats will be ideal
• Builders will determine flat size and amenities. There can be many types of flats and complexes based on flat owner’s income
• No cross-subsidy should be provided
• Banks and other lending institutions should provide 20 to 30 year mortgage
• Each housing complex must provide ample parking space
12. Dwelling for low-skilled employed workers
• The low-skilled workers that migrate from villages to work as construction laborer, maid, security guard, driver, worker in stores, janitor, cleaner etc. will need housing also. But they cannot afford middle class amenities
• For low income workers, no-frills flats will be constructed. These also will have 24 X 7 water and electric supply like everyone else. But the flats will be between 300 and 500 sq ft each with cement floor, cheap windows and doors which can be mass produced in factories, basic bathroom and kitchen and will have 2 or 3 rooms.
• The workers can either buy a flat using long term loan or rent
• The rent can be subsidized by government if necessary
13. Dwelling for newcomers from villages
• For those who migrate from villages with no job, they will be housed in dormitories. Each family will have a room. Single people will share a room. There will be one bathroom with multiple shower stalls and toilets in each floor. Each floor may have 10 to 20 rooms.
• There will be several shared kitchens with gas stoves in each floor. The gas will be provided by government. The building super will allocate time and kitchen for each family during which the family will have to complete cooking. They will use their own utensils, spices and other implements.
• These dormitory dwellings are free for newcomers for up to one year. Within one year, they will have to learn skills, get a job and move to dwelling described in item 12.
• A person, who gets a job, will be allowed to stay in dormitory for 6 months at most. After that, he/she will have to migrate to dwelling for employed workers.
• If a person loses job and cannot pay rent, he can move back to the dorms with his family.
• A social worker, who will act as a mentor, will work with several families. She will train the family in basic urban skills such as how to open a bank account and use it, how to operate the gas stove etc.
• In many cases, potential employers such as building contractors or owners of maid services or janitorial services can go to villages and collect employees.
14. Office complexes
• Multistoried office buildings can be built to house many offices
• Big corporations will be allotted land to build their office
• There will be ample parking space in every office building
• Factories that create noise or air pollution will have to located few miles outside city limits, providing room for future expansion of the city
• Company or chartered buses can transport workers to and from workplace
15. Transportation
• Public or private buses can be provided for public commuting
• Auto rickshaws and Taxi will be allowed
• Cycle rickshaw can be permitted within a neighborhood
• Many people will have their own mode of transportation such as car or motorbike
It can be clearly seen that from digging lake to building underground sewage and water pipes, laying underground cables for electricity and telecommunication, building houses, schools, hospitals, stores, malls, movie theaters and markets there will be a need for many skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled laborers. The people from nearby villages can be enticed into these jobs because they would pay higher wages and would provide year round work. The government as well as private companies can train them as required. While white collar employees like architects, engineers, accountants as well as highly skilled workers like masons, electricians, plumbers, machine operators have to be recruited from all over India, there are many low skilled and unskilled jobs where local villagers who would otherwise work in farms, can be employed with little training. Some of these jobs are mason’s help, brick carrier, road sweeper, janitor, gardener, garbage collector, security guard, maid and cook.
Mentors
The role of mentors will be vital. Mentors can be hired by the government as individual employee or as a member of a group provided by an NGO or social work organization. They should be uniformly trained across the country in how to provide training and teach basic skills to people migrating from villages and those in search of jobs.
Each mentor will be able to handle, probably 100 families. She will most likely be a college graduate and a local person with knowledge of the town/city. Some newcomers from villages would not know how to live a city life. She will be their support person. She will teach them
• How to use bathroom cleanly
• What kind of opportunities are open to the adults based on their skills
• Where they can learn a skill or two so that they will get job
• Where are job openings
• How to spend within means
• How to open a bank account and use it
• How to receive money from the government during initial unemployment
• How to operate the gas stove safely
• Where to send children for school
• How to get additional help for children’s studies
• How to use public transportation
The central theme of this plan is to urbanize India without coercion. The premise is that most villagers live in abysmal condition in villages because they are not aware of better opportunity elsewhere. If they are provided opportunity, most of them will leave their ancestral land to city. The migration will happen anyway. This has happened in western nations in 19th and 20th century and is happening in China now. But all such migrations have been unplanned, chaotic and cost dearly to the people. With planned migration, the suffering can be reduced greatly.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Goals for the next decade
I do not know if the state or central governments in India start out with a short and long term vision. Unless you set your goals very high, you will not achieve even moderate development. It seemed to me that government functions mostly on an ad-hoc basis. As I have discussed in earlier blogs, majority of poor Indians live in rural India where infrastructure is non-existent, jobs are low paying and living condition is abysmal. I believe that the thrust should be toward urbanization on a massive scale. I think that the following goals should not be unreasonable for India at this stage of development:
A. Citizen ID: Every citizen should be given a citizen ID card at birth and the record should be maintained by government. The fingerprint of the person should be electronically stored in government database.
B. Urbanization: Today, about 35% of Indians are urban. In 10 years, this has to be raised to 80%.
1. Starting in 2009, a mission should be set up to urbanize most rural people by 2019. A few towns should be identified in every district and they should be expanded massively so that they can house most rural people of that district. In each district, at least 80% of the population should live in cities and towns by 2019.
2. The cities and towns will need huge expansion. There will be towns with population between 200000 and 600000 each. Each town should be able to issue municipal bonds to raise money to build infrastructure. Big builders should be encouraged to build massive, low cost housing with ample road and shopping complexes.
3. No one will be allowed to build unsafe houses made of clay, asbestos, hay or incomplete house. 90% of houses will be built by large builders.
4. The real estate market must be free. Any flat owner should be able to sell the flat in open market. Banking sector will need expansion in order to meet huge demand for housing loan
5. Each town should have wide roads, underground sewage, proper waste disposal and waste processing plant. Rather than developing these in the congested old part of the town, these sections should be developed in the fringes of the town where population is sparse. If necessary, adjoining villages should be incorporated as part of the town. Wide highways should be built that connect cities in the state.
6. Single window clearance must be given to housing, road construction, township building and other related projects.
7. Home loan will be regulated. The annual mortgage should not exceed a certain percentage of the family’s annual take home pay. In order to avoid speculation, a home buyer will not be able to sell the home for first two years except for distress conditions.
C. Social Security: The way subsidy is delivered to the poor should be changed.
1. Reputed national and global audit companies will be assigned the task of determining household income of every household in the country. This should be measured every 4 years and based on this data the government would determine households that fall below poverty level (BPL).
2. Only BPL households will get subsidy in the form of cash which will be transferred directly from Ministry of Finance in New Delhi to the person’s bank account every month. This will be for a specific amount of time (say 6 months to a year). The states will not have control over this money.
3. Nothing should be provided to the poor or other disadvantaged classes at below market price. Ration shops should be dismantled. There will be no subsidized grain for the poor. As stated in item 2, the BPL households will get cash subsidy with which they will buy goods from open market.
4. Every BPL family and unemployed adult will be assigned a mentor who can be from an NGO or reputed social service organization. The mentors will be trained uniformly across the country. They, in turn will advise the families and individuals about avenues to come out of dependency on government. The goal should be to move the BPL family up the ladder so that they can escape poverty.
D. Electricity: Every household and industry/service must get uninterrupted electricity
1. The central government should study electricity generation, transmission and distribution in developed nations and how it is privatized and regulated
2. Based on the study, it should initiate privatizing of electricity generation, transmission and distribution.
3. A mechanism should be in place to subsidize electricity cost for BPL households. Probably, the best approach will be for the government to directly pay a certain amount of the electric bill directly to the electric company on behalf of the BPL household.
E. Water: Every household must get potable water at the house faucets for 24 hours
1. One or more large lakes or ponds should be excavated near every town/city.
2. They will collect rain water throughout the year and should be sufficient for the urban consumers
3. The water should be pumped from the lake into a processing plant and then distributed to overhead tanks.
4. The processing plant must ensure that the water at the house faucets is free from contamination and potable
5. Every urban household must get 24x7 water supply from the city water supply.
F. Road network: All rural and urban roads must be paved.
1. Every neighborhood must have all paved roads.
2. All sewage must be underground. There will be no open gutters.
3. Every town should be connected to a highway.
4. All new roads should be wide enough to meet international standards.
5. Major highways must be at least 4-lane. In congested urban areas, highways should be 6-lane.
G. Education: Basic education up to high school must be mandatory and free.
1. It will be a state responsibility and center should help poor states.
2. A state should be able to introduce state income tax to raise money for school education. The money thus raised cannot be used for any other state expenditure.
3. If a student cannot afford to go to school, she/he should be provided free boarding facility near the school.
4. In general, high quality food must be provided in mid-day meal.
5. College and university education should be free only to meritorious students coming from BPL and lower-middle class households.
6. The government should encourage creation of private colleges and universities. The government can rank them according to various qualities for the benefit of prospective students and parents.
7. The government must not interfere into management of private educational institutions in the areas of tuition, teacher salary, lab size, classroom size etc. In a free market, customers will choose a college based on its ranking, quality and cost.
H. Basic Healthcare: Free basic healthcare for everyone
1. Basic health care including immunization should be free for everyone.
2. Specialized care such as cancer, organ transplant, heart bypass surgery etc. will be free only to BPL households.
3. Routine checkup often reduces expensive treatment due to early detection of disease. Every person must undergo routine checkup in free, government facility once or twice a year depending on age.
4. Those who can produce records of regular routine checkup for last 3 years should be eligible for reduced health insurance premium irrespective of the result of such checkups.
5. People will be encouraged to purchase health insurance for catastrophic illness. If a family chooses not to buy insurance, government should not be responsible for their health problems.
I. Agriculture: The goal should be to increase farm productivity at par with the west.
1. Today, rice yield per hectare in India is half of that of China and is 35% of Australia. The wheat yield is almost one-third of UK. The overall yield for oilseeds is half of China and less than 30% of UK.
2. I believe that in the long run, yield can be increased only be corporate farming.
3. In the medium term, some gain can be achieved using contract farming.
4. The process of urbanization will, hopefully wean away millions of farm laborers to better paying urban jobs. The mechanized farm will produce more and need much fewer workers. Hence, they will be able to pay much better wage to farm workers.
5. The workers in a mechanized farm have to be educated and skilled. The government can start training institutes or encourage the private sector.
An example of a specific district
The goal should be to urbanize 80% of Indians in next 10 years. Let us take a concrete example of the Birbhum district of West Bengal. It is a mostly rural district which also boasts of Tagore’s Vishvabharati University in Santiniketan. In Birbhum, 75% of people depend on low paid agriculture. It is a backward district with a substantial tribal and scheduled caste population.
Birbhum’s population is about 3 million. According to 2001 census, about 90% of the population is rural. There are four major towns: Siuri, Rampurhat , Bolpur-Santiniketan and Sainthia. The populations of these towns vary from 40000 to 65000 as per 2001 census. These four towns can be expanded by creating planned townships at the edge of each town. These townships will have underground sewage, piped water and 24x7 electricity at every home, schools, shopping center, hospital as well as other facilities that we take for granted in major cities. For safe drinking water, artificial lakes can be created near the town from where water will be pumped into the city, processed and then stored in reservoirs. As I said before, the towns can raise money by selling municipal bonds while the rest can be funded by the central government. The goal should be to raise population of these 4 towns to about 600000 each. That will enable most rural folks in the district to become urban in 10 years time. This will be much more cost effective than attempting to provide urban facilities in all 2200 odd villages in Birbhum. These four towns will be connected by excellent highway system which in turn will be connected to the National Highway network.
The same mechanism can be replicated in all 591 districts in India, keeping in mind variations in geography, culture, population density etc.
A. Citizen ID: Every citizen should be given a citizen ID card at birth and the record should be maintained by government. The fingerprint of the person should be electronically stored in government database.
B. Urbanization: Today, about 35% of Indians are urban. In 10 years, this has to be raised to 80%.
1. Starting in 2009, a mission should be set up to urbanize most rural people by 2019. A few towns should be identified in every district and they should be expanded massively so that they can house most rural people of that district. In each district, at least 80% of the population should live in cities and towns by 2019.
2. The cities and towns will need huge expansion. There will be towns with population between 200000 and 600000 each. Each town should be able to issue municipal bonds to raise money to build infrastructure. Big builders should be encouraged to build massive, low cost housing with ample road and shopping complexes.
3. No one will be allowed to build unsafe houses made of clay, asbestos, hay or incomplete house. 90% of houses will be built by large builders.
4. The real estate market must be free. Any flat owner should be able to sell the flat in open market. Banking sector will need expansion in order to meet huge demand for housing loan
5. Each town should have wide roads, underground sewage, proper waste disposal and waste processing plant. Rather than developing these in the congested old part of the town, these sections should be developed in the fringes of the town where population is sparse. If necessary, adjoining villages should be incorporated as part of the town. Wide highways should be built that connect cities in the state.
6. Single window clearance must be given to housing, road construction, township building and other related projects.
7. Home loan will be regulated. The annual mortgage should not exceed a certain percentage of the family’s annual take home pay. In order to avoid speculation, a home buyer will not be able to sell the home for first two years except for distress conditions.
C. Social Security: The way subsidy is delivered to the poor should be changed.
1. Reputed national and global audit companies will be assigned the task of determining household income of every household in the country. This should be measured every 4 years and based on this data the government would determine households that fall below poverty level (BPL).
2. Only BPL households will get subsidy in the form of cash which will be transferred directly from Ministry of Finance in New Delhi to the person’s bank account every month. This will be for a specific amount of time (say 6 months to a year). The states will not have control over this money.
3. Nothing should be provided to the poor or other disadvantaged classes at below market price. Ration shops should be dismantled. There will be no subsidized grain for the poor. As stated in item 2, the BPL households will get cash subsidy with which they will buy goods from open market.
4. Every BPL family and unemployed adult will be assigned a mentor who can be from an NGO or reputed social service organization. The mentors will be trained uniformly across the country. They, in turn will advise the families and individuals about avenues to come out of dependency on government. The goal should be to move the BPL family up the ladder so that they can escape poverty.
D. Electricity: Every household and industry/service must get uninterrupted electricity
1. The central government should study electricity generation, transmission and distribution in developed nations and how it is privatized and regulated
2. Based on the study, it should initiate privatizing of electricity generation, transmission and distribution.
3. A mechanism should be in place to subsidize electricity cost for BPL households. Probably, the best approach will be for the government to directly pay a certain amount of the electric bill directly to the electric company on behalf of the BPL household.
E. Water: Every household must get potable water at the house faucets for 24 hours
1. One or more large lakes or ponds should be excavated near every town/city.
2. They will collect rain water throughout the year and should be sufficient for the urban consumers
3. The water should be pumped from the lake into a processing plant and then distributed to overhead tanks.
4. The processing plant must ensure that the water at the house faucets is free from contamination and potable
5. Every urban household must get 24x7 water supply from the city water supply.
F. Road network: All rural and urban roads must be paved.
1. Every neighborhood must have all paved roads.
2. All sewage must be underground. There will be no open gutters.
3. Every town should be connected to a highway.
4. All new roads should be wide enough to meet international standards.
5. Major highways must be at least 4-lane. In congested urban areas, highways should be 6-lane.
G. Education: Basic education up to high school must be mandatory and free.
1. It will be a state responsibility and center should help poor states.
2. A state should be able to introduce state income tax to raise money for school education. The money thus raised cannot be used for any other state expenditure.
3. If a student cannot afford to go to school, she/he should be provided free boarding facility near the school.
4. In general, high quality food must be provided in mid-day meal.
5. College and university education should be free only to meritorious students coming from BPL and lower-middle class households.
6. The government should encourage creation of private colleges and universities. The government can rank them according to various qualities for the benefit of prospective students and parents.
7. The government must not interfere into management of private educational institutions in the areas of tuition, teacher salary, lab size, classroom size etc. In a free market, customers will choose a college based on its ranking, quality and cost.
H. Basic Healthcare: Free basic healthcare for everyone
1. Basic health care including immunization should be free for everyone.
2. Specialized care such as cancer, organ transplant, heart bypass surgery etc. will be free only to BPL households.
3. Routine checkup often reduces expensive treatment due to early detection of disease. Every person must undergo routine checkup in free, government facility once or twice a year depending on age.
4. Those who can produce records of regular routine checkup for last 3 years should be eligible for reduced health insurance premium irrespective of the result of such checkups.
5. People will be encouraged to purchase health insurance for catastrophic illness. If a family chooses not to buy insurance, government should not be responsible for their health problems.
I. Agriculture: The goal should be to increase farm productivity at par with the west.
1. Today, rice yield per hectare in India is half of that of China and is 35% of Australia. The wheat yield is almost one-third of UK. The overall yield for oilseeds is half of China and less than 30% of UK.
2. I believe that in the long run, yield can be increased only be corporate farming.
3. In the medium term, some gain can be achieved using contract farming.
4. The process of urbanization will, hopefully wean away millions of farm laborers to better paying urban jobs. The mechanized farm will produce more and need much fewer workers. Hence, they will be able to pay much better wage to farm workers.
5. The workers in a mechanized farm have to be educated and skilled. The government can start training institutes or encourage the private sector.
An example of a specific district
The goal should be to urbanize 80% of Indians in next 10 years. Let us take a concrete example of the Birbhum district of West Bengal. It is a mostly rural district which also boasts of Tagore’s Vishvabharati University in Santiniketan. In Birbhum, 75% of people depend on low paid agriculture. It is a backward district with a substantial tribal and scheduled caste population.
Birbhum’s population is about 3 million. According to 2001 census, about 90% of the population is rural. There are four major towns: Siuri, Rampurhat , Bolpur-Santiniketan and Sainthia. The populations of these towns vary from 40000 to 65000 as per 2001 census. These four towns can be expanded by creating planned townships at the edge of each town. These townships will have underground sewage, piped water and 24x7 electricity at every home, schools, shopping center, hospital as well as other facilities that we take for granted in major cities. For safe drinking water, artificial lakes can be created near the town from where water will be pumped into the city, processed and then stored in reservoirs. As I said before, the towns can raise money by selling municipal bonds while the rest can be funded by the central government. The goal should be to raise population of these 4 towns to about 600000 each. That will enable most rural folks in the district to become urban in 10 years time. This will be much more cost effective than attempting to provide urban facilities in all 2200 odd villages in Birbhum. These four towns will be connected by excellent highway system which in turn will be connected to the National Highway network.
The same mechanism can be replicated in all 591 districts in India, keeping in mind variations in geography, culture, population density etc.
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